Bitcoin price has fallen a bit over the past day and is currently trading at $40,012 with a 32% drop in volume. Despite the price crash, it will not be easy for Bitcoin price to recapture the psychological $40,000 mark, especially considering the market volatility brought about by the ongoing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) redemptions.
GBTC is in the process of consolidation, and there may be volatility in the short term. They have a lot of Bitcoin and are now being redeemed in large quantities.
I’m surprised you didn’t mention E.Warren’s cryptocurrency bill which is impossible to comply with and effectively shuts down cryptocurrency in the US…
Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said that the price of Bitcoin could potentially fall to $30,000 due to the risk of “hyperinflation.” He attributed the bearish outlook for the Bitcoin market to the impending turmoil in the U.S. and global economies.
“Yellen Still Talking?” is an article about how I think the Bitcoin price drop points to a traditional finance (TradFi) mini-financial crisis and that it will bottom out in the $30,000 to $35,000 range.
In the first quarter of 2024, Bitcoin prices could encounter multiple obstacles that could serve as downside catalysts, Hayes said. These include:
The Red Sea conflict between the United States and the Houthis and its impact on global shipping
Increased transportation costs "could lead to a surge in inflation in the third and fourth quarters of this year," Hayes attributed to weather and geopolitics.
US presidential election race
Federal Reserve Policy
“From the ETF-approved high of $48,000, the correction for 30% is $33,600,” he said. His forecast placed initial support in the $30,000 to $35,000 range, a stance that inspired his decision to purchase a $35,000 strike put option on March 29, 2024.
Additionally, Hayes noted in the blog that any level below $35,000 is a good entry point for investors looking for a dip.
It is worth mentioning that Ran Neuner, an analyst and executive at Crypto Banter, warned investors to be cautious about buying low. He said: "You won't catch the bottom, and if you miss the rise, you will regret it!" The analyst added: "My theory is, start buying now. If we fall to $34,000, buy all the way. But don't miss the rise!"
In a bull market, an “acceptable” correction is usually 30%. We have already fallen 20%, and there may be 10% left…
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Arthur Hayes predicts a correction to $30,000
Bitcoin price is currently trading above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) support at $39,459. The relative strength index (RSI) outlook is biased north, which suggests that momentum is starting to rise. If maintained, this momentum indicator can soon cross the signal line (yellow area), executing a buy signal.
However, the strength of Bitcoin price is weak as the RSI is still below the 50 midline. This means that bears have the upper hand, which is also confirmed by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence indicator (MACD), which is below its signal line (orange area) and in negative territory. Strengthening the bearish outlook is the Awesome Oscillator (AO), which is also in negative territory, showing that bears have the upper hand in the Bitcoin market.
Strengthening seller momentum could cause Bitcoin price to lose the 100-day SMA support at $39,459 and potentially fall further to the $37,800 support level. If it breaks and closes below this level, Bitcoin could continue to fall to the 200-day SMA support at $33,623. If this level fails to hold, Bitcoin could fall back to the psychological mark of $30,000, a 25% drop from current levels.
On the other hand, if the 100-day SMA holds as support, Bitcoin price could push northwards. This could allow Bitcoin to break above the 50-day SMA on its way to $42,934. Higher prices could break above the $43,750 resistance and move into an ascending parallel channel.
In a highly bullish scenario, gains could push Bitcoin price to the resistance area between the channel’s midline and the key resistance level of $48,000. This would put the psychological barrier of $50,000 in play, representing a 25% upside from the current price.
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