Bitcoin Price Prediction: Can $40,000 Hold After FTX Sells $1 Billion Grayscale Bitcoin ETF? Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Over?

This week, the bitcoin price has fallen sharply from its record high of $49,000 to $40,000, driven by concerns related to Mt. Gox and FTX, creating uncertainty about its future direction.
The rally was fueled by news of CNA’s acceptance and participation as well as major players such as BlackRock, but some analysts predict Bitcoin could retrace to $31,000.
Bitcoin Price Analysis and Price Predictions
The price of Bitcoin is correcting back from a strong rejection at the psychological level of $49,000. Despite the challenges, Bitcoin has managed to recapture the psychological level of $40,000 after falling to a low of $38,500.
Bitcoin holders find themselves in uncertainty territory until the price breaks out and secures a hold above the $40,700 support level on the three-day timeframe. When examining technical indicators, it is clear that Bitcoin has broken above a key resistance level.
The Stochastic RSI signal is showing overbought conditions, reaching 90, which historically indicates an impending correction. This observation is reinforced on the daily chart, further supporting the possibility of a pullback.
The regular RSI on both the weekly and daily charts is showing a bearish divergence, where the chart is trending up, but the RSI is trending down – a signal that is often associated with hidden bearish divergences.
Despite initial skepticism about the potential for a major move, Bitcoin did experience a significant drop.
Considering investor behavior, investors usually sell when the Stochastic RSI exceeds 70, while levels below 30 trigger buying. Oversold phases imply accumulation periods, which can result in huge gains for those who strategically buy during dips.
If the bulls prevail, a decisive breakout above $40,726 would pave the way for Bitcoin’s price to surpass $43,750, or in a highly bullish scenario, retake the $49,000 level. A very bullish outcome could push Bitcoin towards the psychological level of $50,000, which was last tested in December 2021.
On the other hand, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below 50 and continues to decline, the price of Bitcoin could decline further, potentially breaking below the $37,800 support level. Losing this level of buyer congestion could lead Bitcoin towards the psychological level of $30,000.
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Mt. Gox Bitcoin repayment news sparks market concerns and price volatility
Looking at recent developments, Mt. Gox confirmed that it would begin repaying creditors in Bitcoin in December 2023, sparking concerns about a potential market sell-off. The large amount of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash expected to be repaid could have an impact on the market.
Looking back at historical events, such as the Mt. Gox incident in 2014, it is clear that Bitcoin has the ability to rebound in difficult situations. Experts have different opinions on how the Mt. Gox trustee should handle the Bitcoin repayment.
Some expect the gradual repayment to take place over several months, while others believe it will be a one-time large repayment. "Of course, the selling pressure should be relatively limited. After all, a lot of debt has been sold over the years and their prices have been reflected in the market," Yang Mingdao said.
In the past 24 hours, the price of BTC has increased by 1% and is currently trading at $40,068. The 24-hour minimum and maximum prices were $39,545 and $40,254 respectively. In addition, the trading volume in the past 24 hours has decreased by 12%.
FTX $1B Selloff – The Domino Effect on Bitcoin and Market Analysis
The price of Bitcoin fell after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. In theory, as FTX completes the sale of its large holdings, the selling pressure may ease, considering that bankruptcy liquidations are relatively rare events.
Investors have unloaded more than $2 billion worth of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) since converting it to an exchange-traded fund earlier this month.
According to a report by CoinDesk, it appears that 1/2 of the $2 billion GBTC outflow came from FTX liquidating its 22 million holdings.
Additionally, FTX’s sister hedge fund Alameda Research voluntarily dropped its lawsuit against Grayscale Investments today.
FTX’s bankruptcy liquidation sold 22 million shares, equivalent to nearly $1 billion, according to private data compiled by CoinDesk and insights from two people familiar with the matter.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen since the ETF was approved, in stark contrast to the high expectations before the SEC’s announcement. The Bitcoin ETF is expected to provide ordinary investors with a more convenient way to enter the Bitcoin market, which led to optimistic predictions for the price of BTC.
However, Bitcoin has experienced a decline. In theory, now that FTX has completed the sale of its large holdings, the selling pressure may ease, considering that bankruptcy liquidation of holdings is a relatively rare event.