The price of buying Bitcoin has been relatively stable in the $8,700 range lately, but it’s clear that a big change is about to happen. Most are speculating that this will be a bull run for the world’s oldest cryptocurrency, as historical block reward halvings have always sparked huge bull runs. The halving will take place in May, but some key figures are beginning to speculate whether the retail market will react like it did in the past two halvings. Some are saying it could turn out in a completely different way.
Two opposing views
Considering this debate, there are two important perspectives: The mainstream view is that everything will proceed as usual and the bull run will come as expected. The other view is that the Bitcoin market has developed to a point where it will not fall into a random euphoria due to a natural reduction in supply. After all, there are already many Bitcoins in circulation.
I'm cheated twice, shame on me
Jimmy Song, a well-known Bitcoin influencer and educator, speculated that the market should learn lessons from the bull runs of 2013 and 2017. After both halvings, the massive market rallies and subsequent crashes were caused by bull runs. In a brief statement published on Twitter, Song speculated that compared to the past two halvings, transactions may react differently, especially on the retail side.
The next round of retail behavior will be different from the last round of retail behavior. There are too many stories in the last round.
— Jimmy Song (송재준) (@jimmysong)
January 16, 2020
What he meant was that many investors in the Bitcoin industry have learned a serious lesson from their last mistake. The problem is not the huge bull run where huge profits can be made, but that when the market inevitably crashes, those who are on the upside will be hit the hardest. The Bitcoin market should strive for stability, not go up and down like a stunt pilot.
Many new investors, never fooled
In contrast, Spaceshift CEO Erik Voorhees believes the market will behave as it has in the past, only the stakes are higher, as Bitcoin’s relative price always seems to rise before the halving. He believes there are still new investors entering the Bitcoin industry.
I thought the same thing in 2013 during the Bitcoin bubble and after the Gox crisis, but it is not true. The problem with newcomers is that they are new.
— Erik Voorhees (@ErikVoorhees)
January 16, 2020
Therefore, he responded to Song’s tweet like this. He further explained that the market is eager to pursue quick profits, which is very disadvantageous to itself.
He even agreed with Song, saying he had begun to think the market would stabilize after the 2013 crash and the Mt. Gox crisis. His reasoning was simple: “The problem with the new guys is that they’re new.”
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